Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by shadedeflector, Dec 2, 2016.
First up... France.
Hollande announced he's not running for reelection. President Le Pen?
Nah. Le Pen won't become President because Fillion won the Republican primary and he's basically running on FN's immigration platform/stance.
Not exactly heart warming news either, but I don't think Fillion would call for an EU referendum on Frexit like Le Pen has promised.
Le Pen will definitely make it past the first round into the runoff.
However, not entirely impossible that she wins, because Fillion is quite the Thatcherite and has promised cuts to the welfare state which FN hasn't so it remains to be seen whether FN can sway voters away from Fillion by positioning themselves are pro-welfare programs, which seem popular with much of the French population.
Definitely keeping an eye of the French election and upcoming Italian referendum.
Fillon is anti-gay, anti-union, anti-abortion, anti-immigration, anti-drugs, privatize everything, totally rewrite the work code, free market, trickle-down economics... severely Right-wing. France is fucked either way.
Oh no doubt. Fillon is terrible, and neither is a good candidate.
But at the minimum, I don't think France would pull out of the EU under Fillion. If France pulled out, the entire union would be destabilized.
Also let's not forget that Austria has an election this weekend, and Italy's constitutional referendum.
Obviously most elections/referendums are important, but does our Italian hunties here have the tea on the consequences of both ways today's constitutional referendum goes? Didn't the current leader say they would resign if it didn't pass?
Well, Austria didn't go for the far-right candidate! For once I'm glad the polls had it completely wrong again.
Yes, he said he will.
If the referendum passes, Renzi will be able to complete his mandate and get ready for the 2018 elections. A victory would strengthen his leadership, mitigate the momentum the Movimento 5 Stelle and Lega Nord have been building and sedate internal opposition inside the Democratic Party itself. A victory would also stabilize and improve Italy's place in the international markets and within the European Union, seeing as foreign investors and governments expressed their wish for the referendum to pass.
In short: national and international stability, no immediate economic danger.
If the referendum doesn't pass, there will be elections as soon as possible. Before the elections are held, Renzi will try to modify the disastrous electoral law his government proposed and approved last year. The law features a big majority bonus for the party who gets the most votes. The Movimento 5 Stelle has never been as popular as it is now and a no victory would galvanize it further. This means Grillo could end up having a majority in both houses. Now, M5S are staunch Eurosceptics and have annonced, forgot about and then re-announced a referendum to abandon the Monetary Union. They're extremely volatile and you never know what their populistic rhetoric is going to hit next. They're a strange bunch. They're not the only unpredictable populists who could cause damage though: Lega Nord's disgusting leader Matteo Salvini is trying to promote himself as the unifying link between centre and far-right defying the eternal influence and power of Berlusconi's corpse. It is likely Silvio will support Renzi's attempts of changing the electoral law. It wouldn't be the first time they save each other's ugly asses. Renzi needs backing in Parliament and Berlusconi knows his party would be fucked with the actual voting system. Nobody really knows though, all these people being self-serving loose cannons. All this could hurt Italy on an international and economic level. It is possible but not certain the dreaded instability could trigger a new crisis and have serious repercussions on a continental level.
In short: uncertainty and madness with a possibility of chaos but maybe not, who knows.
There is also a chance President Mattarella decides not to call for immediate elections if the referendum doesn't pass. In this case, the country would be lead by an interim government until the natural end of the legislature in 2018. A no victory would be a victory for every kind of populist in the country anyway, and be their definitive political consecration.
I'm nervous about the referendum. I'm not incredibly versed on Italian politics, but I think a "Yes" vote seems to be the best outcome for Italy.
Feeling this iconic Milanese bop while waiting for the referendum result
Keta for Presidente del Consiglio, honestly.
Looks like a resounding defeat for Yes.
Euro is taking a beating. Merkel must be so fucking tired of holding the world together.
It's arguable that the reforms (especially making the Senate unelected, but appointed by regional government) weren't a good idea.
The Economist: Why Italy should vote no in its referendum
Very possible, and it's important to note that this was a referendum on the constitution, not on EU membership or the Eurozone.
However, this does have the possibility of leading to a financial crisis in Italy.
I see both sides. I can see how the amendments could've overwhelmingly given too much power to the PM, especially in a country that's seems particularly susceptible to falling under the siren call of populists like the article pointed out.
With that said, Italy has an issue with political gridlock, and something with the current system isn't working.
It's a shame that Renzi made it clear he was to resign if he lost the referendum. They're poor reforms, but you also don't want the instability that will now likely come.
It was a foolish move, but I think he felt it was the only way to get people to consider the stakes of the referendum and actually engage with the referendum.
It'll be an interesting few months for Italy for sure.
It was certainly a flawed reform and I wasn't completely sold on it myself. Still, it wasn't tragic either. It was something. It was a start, an attempt, a kick in the ass. This country is hopelessly stuck in its self-destructive ways, really. It's lifeless and hostile to any type of change even if everyone keeps demanding it and making noise about it, making noise being a well-known national talent. Being an Italian citizen feels a lot like having a relationship with an addict with a tendency to relapse.
Let's not kid ourselves either: this was a political vote. Would the reform have been approved by the chambers, many people wouldn't have taken issue with it. Renzi was forced to call a referendum because the reform didn't pass with a majority of two-thirds in each house of the parliament in the second vote (this overwrought, endless chamber-bouncing process being the main thing the reform aimed to get rid of) and when that happens, the law can be approved only by popular vote. His mistake was to turn constitutional matters into a test for his own government, thinking foolishly that the people wouldn't betray him. There wasn't any need to attach this to the fate of the legislature. He's such a Berlusconi sometimes. But I do feel sorry.
My early New Year's Resolution for 2017: no more referendums. Thanks.
Welcome to Russia.
Yeah, I do think that both sides did such a childlish and horrible propaganda... but it's tragic how many italians voted no only because they wanted to get Renzi out.
I am hoping we don't go to election immediately though, the chances of winning of the M5S party would be quite high, and I do think they would be a disgrace to this country.
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