Oscar Bait 2021 - 22

After all the speculation about changing Covid rules to get Van Morrison to perform

The fact that Sparks moved around their touring schedule so they could attend and then weren’t even nominated.

Imagine a batshit performance of an upbeat pop song at the Oscars. Sparks would’ve brought that. But no, we just get to hear Billie whisper her way through No Time to Die again.
So Disney wanted to mess with a Disney production because another Disney production was underway? As if stopping so she could go to the Oscars isn't chump change compared to how much they rake in annually? Bye.
The year of Disney bad press

We simply love to see it

Here's my thinking...........

Nicole - There is no way Nicole Kidman is winning a 2nd Oscar for that.

Olivia - Won too recently. Film is polarising.

Kristen - Barely scraped a nom. Film too polarising. Plenty of chances to reward her in the future.

Jessica - Current front runner and with old Academy she would have won but the film has zero visibility outside America and the real life character she's playing doesn't resonate abroad. She's not truly overdue enough for that narrative to work. The film is also BAD.

Penelope - With such a tight race the votes are going to be pretty evenly split so (Much like last year) you look to the nominee in the most acclaimed film. Jessica may get the most votes from US Academy members but Penelope is going to clean up with international voters which in such a close field should be enough to push her over the top.

I'm not remotely certain of this but it's the scenario that makes the most sense to me.