Oscars Race 2024-25

[Aidan]

My pick for Best Picture would absolutely be I'm Still Here but it'll win Best International Feature Film as a consolation prize while Anora walks with Best Picture. Still, the BP campaign for Anora has been a trip because it never really seemed like THE competitor. Mikey would probably be a lock for Best Actress if Demi didn't suddenly win a Golden Globe and remind everyone she's basically never won anything despite a fantastic filmography. Mikey could still low-key sneak at the Oscars, nothing is off the table.

Yeah I’m not counting out Mikey for Best Actress just yet either especially after last year it looked like Lily was going to win.

 

[LTG]

Still, the BP campaign for Anora has been a trip because it never really seemed like THE competitor.

It basically was since it was an American film winning the Palme, up until it missed at the Globes, but it’s won at the industry awards confirming it’s probably always been the front runner.

 

[LTG]

Yeah I’m not counting out Mikey for Best Actress just yet either especially after last year it looked like Lily was going to win.

Last year was definitely a two horse race with both Lily and Emma winning places where there’s comedy and drama categories, BAFTA going for Emma but SAG going Lily.

 

[constantino]

I fucking loved Anora so very pleased with this turn.

 

[allyshone]

Same here. Anora can take the award in whichever category it's nominated in and I'll be happy.

 

[Mikl C]

I'm still here was stunning

Anora remains trash

 

[ElectricKnight]

Best Actress often throws up a surprise, remember how everyone thought Glenn Close was a dead cert for The Wife (and she had a similar narrative that Demi has, albeit she was nominated a lot more over the years) and Olivia Coleman came in and snatched it off her. Really hope it's Demi's, even if Mikey was superb in Anora.

 

[LTG]

Best Actress often throws up a surprise, remember how everyone thought Glenn Close was a dead cert for The Wife (and she had a similar narrative that Demi has, albeit she was nominated a lot more over the years) and Olivia Coleman came in and snatched it off her. Really hope it's Demi's, even if Mikey was superb in Anora.

No one really liked Glenn’s movie though. It would have been more of a I guess we’ll give it to her now, compared to Demi whose film is in picture, director, screenplay and hair and makeup too.

 

[2014]

Yess Anora yessss.

 

[Subwaykid]

Anora winning over The Brutalist would be a more positive indicator of where the Academy/industry is at and the kind of movies that can still get a big studio push, even if I ended up preferring the latter slightly more than the former.

 

[Rebel]

Last year was definitely a two horse race with both Lily and Emma winning places where there’s comedy and drama categories, BAFTA going for Emma but SAG going Lily.

Emma won the Oscar because she was in a stronger film (it won other categories and probably a runner up for Best Picture too) where as no one really liked Martin Scorsese's latest so Lily couldn't pull through in the end.

 

[LTG]

Emma won the Oscar because she was in a stronger film (it won other categories and probably a runner up for Best Picture too) where as no one really liked Martin Scorsese's latest so Lily couldn't pull through in the end.

Killers of the Flower Moon was one of the most acclaimed films of the year. It won best film at National Board of Review, but Oppenheimer had the surprise extreme success and Nolan overdue narrative so was the juggernaut the whole race. Flower Moon still got 10 Oscar noms so was both critically acclaimed and liked by the industry.

 

[popzone]

Emma’s win was absolutely justified. I was so glad that she pulled it out.

 

[Vasilios]

yesssss Anora

 

[drewsky]

I know film twitter is always like "all these things in the past won this and only one movie didn't end up winning best picture" yada yada but like... just because it's a pattern doesn't mean it's a rule. One year can completely upend the trend. The whole thing still feels like anyone's game with how unpredictable this season has been.

 

[Arcana]

The one thing I can imagine taking the win away from Anora would be the sexually explicit nature of the film making some of the more conservative Academy members rank it really low, which would then bring down the movie's average in the weird preferential system they have which determines the winner. But there's no way of knowing if that'll happen or not, so as of now it seems like it's got a very clear path, and even though I'm Still Here is my #1 this season, I loved Anora so I'd be happy with it taking Best Picture while I'm Still Here takes Best Foreign Picture.

Spoiler

(And Emilia Perez takes neither)

 

[LTG]

I know film twitter is always like "all these things in the past won this and only one movie didn't end up winning best picture" yada yada but like... just because it's a pattern doesn't mean it's a rule. One year can completely upend the trend. The whole thing still feels like anyone's game with how unpredictable this season has been.

Yeah CODA won with the fewest noms since Grand Hotel won its only nomination of Best Picture. The ranked choice voting for Picture can definitely throw up some surprises.

 

[popzone]

Zoe and Kieran have won at the BAFTAs for Supporting Actress and Actor.

 

[LTG]

Yet again the flop BAFTAs going on and results coming out before they’ve even started airing on TV.

 

[aboutyounow]

And this throws a wrench into things. It’s all up to SAG now.