Oscars Race 2024-25

[Drew]

Nightbitch looks fun. It doesn't look like Oscar bait, and I wonder if that makes up some (not a lot, but some) of the predicament Amy has found herself in the last 5 or 6 years - people expect everything she's in to garner her an Oscar nomination. In some cases, maybe the goal was just to make a fun movie? And I think studios lean into that too - "Amy's in it so we'll make an awards season bid!". Maybe Nightbitch should just have been a fun mid March release?

Obviously some of her missteps like Hillbilly Oscar Bid was what it was. But I do think that mindset exists a bit in the conversation about Amy's career.

 

[drewsky]

The end of Conclave left me shook. Ralph Fiennes is definitely getting a best actor nod.

 

[Cognitive Dissonance]

Blitz was a slog. It felt completely empty and I didn't rate Saoirse in it either.

 

[Subwaykid]

Is it just me or has everything sort of lost its momentum outside of Wicked? We’ve still got a couple contenders with A Complete Unknown and The Brutalist but I wouldn’t be surprised if Wicked ends up swooping in and cleaning up that night.

 

[LTG]

Is it just me or has everything sort of lost its momentum outside of Wicked? We’ve still got a couple contenders with A Complete Unknown and The Brutalist but I wouldn’t be surprised if Wicked ends up swooping in and cleaning up that night.

Hmm I don’t know if Wicked is real or just social media and paid “ooh it could win” pieces. It’s worse on a technical level than Barbie and I can’t see it doing better than that.

 

[johnoclock]

Conclave was sensational, absolutely gripping.

 

[aboutyounow]

I’m very surprised but also very, very happy that word of mouth is really keeping Demi Moore and The Substance alive. I’m really deluding myself to thinking she may have a serious shot at an Oscar nom even though the Academy hates “horror” roles.

Ultimately, I think Conclave is gonna take BP just for the sheer factor that I think Anora is too “trendy” to win but crazier things have happened.

 

[AlmightyAloud]

Hmm I don’t know if Wicked is real or just social media and paid “ooh it could win” pieces. It’s worse on a technical level than Barbie and I can’t see it doing better than that.

The difference here is that I actually think Wicked being a box office smash musical is helping it more than Barbie, which had people criticizing (unfairly) the message of the film. People are leaving Wicked overjoyed, and the box office numbers are suggesting uniquely strong word of mouth. And it will still feel recent when nominations role in. I don't see how Wicked isn't Top 3 by January.

By then, Ariana and likely Cynthia are win competitive in the acting categories and it picks up noms everywhere else. Bailey rides the coattails like Ferrera and takes out one of the supporting actors slots. Chu realistically could sneak into Director or the Screenplay sneaks in Adapted. And then add the buzz, word of mouth, and the insane campaign Universal is going to run... and then it's in contention to win Picture. Universal are going to make the production budget back on both films just from the Part One box office.

It's really not that out of the realm of possibility...

 

[WowWowWowWow]

Is it just me or has everything sort of lost its momentum outside of Wicked? We’ve still got a couple contenders with A Complete Unknown and The Brutalist but I wouldn’t be surprised if Wicked ends up swooping in and cleaning up that night.

People are taking the Wicked Oscar campaign and really holding space with that, and feeling power in that. I’ve seen it on a couple posts, I don’t know how widespread. But I am in queer media.

 

[LTG]

The difference here is that I actually think Wicked being a box office smash musical is helping it more than Barbie, which had people criticizing (unfairly) the message of the film. People are leaving Wicked overjoyed, and the box office numbers are suggesting uniquely strong word of mouth. And it will still feel recent when nominations role in. I don't see how Wicked isn't Top 3 by January.

By then, Ariana and likely Cynthia are win competitive in the acting categories and it picks up noms everywhere else. Bailey rides the coattails like Ferrera and takes out one of the supporting actors slots. Chu realistically could sneak into Director or the Screenplay sneaks in Adapted. And then add the buzz, word of mouth, and the insane campaign Universal is going to run... and then it's in contention to win Picture. Universal are going to make the production budget back on both films just from the Part One box office.

It's really not that out of the realm of possibility...

We’ll see but I can’t see the Academy voters going all in with certain categories. Like the directors didn’t even nominate Villeneuve for Dune 1 or Gerwig for Barbie. The most recent musical they nominated was Spielberg and that’s vastly better directed (just with a void of charisma in one of the leads, which Wicked doesn’t suffer from).

I can see a split picture/director year and Wicked might win with the preferential ballot, but I feel a sweep is all marketing hype atm. I’m sure it’ll do well with Golden Globe noms next week and it might be able to ride the momentum.

Dune 2 is still a big question mark. Will the early release hurt it? Or will it come back strong in nominations? Will they cancel each other out as the two big studio blockbusters?

 

[Aidan]

If there’s going to be a big blockbuster director nominated then it belongs to Denis. Dune Part 2 was a masterpiece

 

[drewsky]

I’m very surprised but also very, very happy that word of mouth is really keeping Demi Moore and The Substance alive. I’m really deluding myself to thinking she may have a serious shot at an Oscar nom even though the Academy hates “horror” roles.

Ultimately, I think Conclave is gonna take BP just for the sheer factor that I think Anora is too “trendy” to win but crazier things have happened.

I really don't think it should even be nominated let alone win dd. Fantastically acted, but the plot was predictable, nothing outstanding in terms of cinematography or direction. It's not well rounded enough to feel like a satisfying winner.

 

[AlmightyAloud]

I also need someone to explain to me why 'Anora' is amazing from a filmmaking perspective. I didn't find the editing, cinematography or directing to be anything to have it as a lock. Mikey is great and the supporting performances are solid and its got some clever hijinks in the script. That's about it?

What am I missing?

 

[johnoclock]

If there’s going to be a big blockbuster director nominated then it belongs to Denis. Dune Part 2 was a masterpiece

Yeah, I'm a little surprised about people predicting Best Picture/Best Director wins for Wicked when the aforementioned West Side Story which was a literal masterpiece didn't win. The two wonderfully charismatic leads deserve recognition as do the technical aspects like sound, costumes and set design but I found the actual direction a little plain and workmanlike?

 

[Aidan]

Yeah, I'm a little surprised about people predicting Best Picture/Best Director wins for Wicked when the aforementioned West Side Story which was a literal masterpiece didn't receive anything. The two wonderfully charismatic leads deserve recognition as do the technical aspects like costumes and set design but I found the actual difection a little plain and workmanlike?

Also like blockbuster films just don’t win Best Picture either nn

 

[LTG]

Also like blockbuster films just don’t win Best Picture either nn

Well they always used to and Oppenheimer becoming a blockbuster kind of cemented its win. But that had been 20 years since the last one, so it’s clearly a high bar at this stage.

 

[LTG]

Yeah, I'm a little surprised about people predicting Best Picture/Best Director wins for Wicked when the aforementioned West Side Story which was a literal masterpiece didn't receive anything. The two wonderfully charismatic leads deserve recognition as do the technical aspects like costumes and set design but I found the actual difection a little plain and workmanlike?

A mix of it being a remake of a previous best picture winner, the awful casting of Elgort and complacency with Spielberg making another gorgeous film. And then it flopping kind of sealed its fate.

 

[BTG]

West Side Story is no masterpiece with Elgort as a lead. Please.

I’m having a Conclave tonight.

 

[Alphableat]

I can’t see anything else beside Wicked and Dune getting a sniff of a technical award.

 

[Serg.]

Wicked is not getting a director nomination I can tell you that much.