Oscars Race 2024-25

Emilia Perez was sensational. One of the most fiercely original, uncompromising, surprising, creative films I've seen in years. Zoe and Karla were fantastic and even if Selena was a little out of her depth, she didn't take me out of the film. I expected a mess after seeing people dunking on it but it worked completely and had me completely engrossed from beginning to end. I don't even know what more to say without giving away the turns it takes. Wow.
 
The amount Isabella does with the little screen time she has is precisely why she'd be a worthy winner. It’s a proper supporting performance, whereas both Zoe and Ariana are leads.
Category fraud is so frustrating. The supporting category is now used to place the younger / less known lead actor when there are multiple leads. Don't even get me started on the mental acrobatics involved to justify one lead "supporting" the narrative of another.
 
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Too bee Eieech category fraud in Supporting Actress wasn't that bad last couple of years, except I guess Jodie Foster.
 
Frances gets the win from me for Nomadland (it would be a closer thing if I classed Andra Day as 2020 but I don’t because she wasn’t, so instead she’s my runner up to Tessa Thompson a year later)…

My favourite Frances performances are her supporting nominations. I think she was brilliant in Mississippi Burning (a stacked year with Geena winning for The Accidental Tourist, Michelle Pfeiffer for Dangerous Liaisons and both Joan Cusack and Sigourney Weaver for Working Girl).

I also love Frances in Almost Famous.
 
Category fraud is so frustrating. The supporting category is now used to place the younger / less known lead actor when there are multiple leads. Don't even get me started on the mental acrobatics involved to justify one lead "supporting" the narrative of another.
I don't know if @Baby Clyde posts here still but he always did a great job of explaining why it was so wrong.

The example he always picked out was Julia Roberts in August: Osage County; the biggest female star of her generation, already an Oscar-winner, campaigning for what was clearly a leading role...with the result being that some less famous and fully deserving costars (Julianne Nicholson and Beloved Character Actress Margo Martindale) got no push at all.
 
I don't know if @Baby Clyde posts here still but he always did a great job of explaining why it was so wrong.

The example he always picked out was Julia Roberts in August: Osage County; the biggest female star of her generation, already an Oscar-winner, campaigning for what was clearly a leading role...with the result being that some less famous and fully deserving costars (Julianne Nicholson and Beloved Character Actress Margo Martindale) got no push at all.
I wish AMPAS could do it like the Tonys, who have it so that anyone who isn't billed above the title is automatically considered Supporting/Featured, and has to be petitioned by the producers into the Leading category (there are also cases where a name above the title is petitioned down to Featured). A committee rules on the eligibility. It nips so much controversy in the bud, but there's just too damn many movies for it to be practical for the Academy.
 

LTG

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I do like that the Academy actors branch voting can change it. Like when Kate was campaigning lead in Revolutionary Road and supporting in The Reader and the voters understandably thought the latter was ridiculous so they put her in as lead for The Reader.

But then you can end up with both leads in supporting like Judas and the Black Messiah.
 
To be a little fair, Zoe carries the full weight of her film start to finish. Ariana (and Glinda by character design) spend the 2nd half of Part One mostly reacting to what happens to Cynthia/Elphaba. She's on screen, yes - but post Popular, she's kinda just along for the ride. And that's a supporting character trait.

Now if Wicked was one film, not split - this argument holds no weight and they'd both be leads.
 
Also, sorry for the double post but I think Angelina was STUNNING in Maria.

If only they had the guts to have a Natalie Portman cameo as Jackie to complete Pablo's trilogy.
 
Angelina was absolutely incredible in “Maria”. What a performance. The waves of emotions you feel watching her… she devours it.
 

LTG

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Critics Choice nominations:

BEST PICTURE
A Complete Unknown
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
The Substance
Wicked

BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig – Queer
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Hugh Grant – Heretic

BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths
Angelina Jolie – Maria
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Margaret Qualley – The Substance
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

BEST YOUNG ACTOR / ACTRESS
Alyla Browne – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Elliott Heffernan – Blitz
Maisy Stella – My Old Ass
Izaac Wang – Didi
Alisha Weir – Abigail
Zoe Ziegler – Janet Planet

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Anora
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Saturday Night
Sing Sing
Wicked

BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker – Anora
Edward Berger – Conclave
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Jon M. Chu – Wicked
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Sean Baker – Anora
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David – September 5
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold – The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Justin Kuritzkes – Challengers

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox – Wicked
Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley – Sing Sing
RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes – Nickel Boys
Peter Straughan – Conclave
Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts – Dune: Part Two

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Jarin Blaschke – Nosferatu
Alice Brooks – Wicked
Lol Crawley – The Brutalist
Stéphane Fontaine – Conclave
Greig Fraser – Dune: Part Two
Jomo Fray – Nickel Boys

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia – The Brutalist
Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales – Wicked
Suzie Davies – Conclave
Craig Lathrop – Nosferatu
Arthur Max, Jille Azis, Elli Griff – Gladiator II
Patrice Vermette, Shane Vieau – Dune: Part Two

BEST EDITING
Sean Baker – Anora
Marco Costa – Challengers
Nick Emerson – Conclave
David Jancso – The Brutalist
Joe Walker – Dune: Part Two
Hansjörg Weißbrich – September 5

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Lisy Christl – Conclave
Linda Muir – Nosferatu
Massimo Cantini Parrini – Maria
Paul Tazewell – Wicked
Jacqueline West – Dune: Part Two
Janty Yates, Dave Crossman – Gladiator II

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Christine Blundell, Lesa Warrener, Neal Scanlan – Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Hair and Makeup Team – Dune: Part Two
Hair and Makeup Team – The Substance
Frances Hannon, Sarah Nuth, Laura Blount – Wicked
Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton, David White – Nosferatu
Mike Marino, Sarah Graalman, Aaron Saucier – A Different Man

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Mark Bakowski, Pietro Ponti, Nikki Penny, Neil Corbould – Gladiator II
Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould, David Shirk – Wicked
Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, Gerd Nefzer – Dune: Part Two
Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft, Peter Stubbs – Better Man
Visual Effects Team – The Substance
Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story, Rodney Burke – Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

BEST COMEDY
A Real Pain
Deadpool & Wolverine
Hit Man
My Old Ass
Saturday Night
Thelma

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
All We Imagine as Light
Emilia Pérez
Flow
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig

BEST SONG
“Beautiful That Way” – The Last Showgirl – Miley Cyrus
“Compress / Repress” – Challengers – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
“El Mal” – Emilia Pérez – Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón, Camille
“Harper and Will Go West” – Will & Harper – Kristen Wiig
“Kiss the Sky” – The Wild Robot – Maren Morris
“Mi Camino” – Emilia Pérez – Selena Gomez

BEST SCORE
Volker Bertelmann – Conclave
Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist
Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot
Clément Ducol & Camille – Emilia Pérez
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross – Challengers
Hans Zimmer – Dune: Part Two
 


Love a chart. The Actress Five is shaping up to be Mikey, Angelina, Karla, Demi and Cynthia. However I remain somewhat unconvinced by Karla ... and I think it's far from over for Marianne and Nicole.
 
Yeah there's no overlap in membership of the Globes and CCs with the Oscars unlike SAG and BAFTA. It's over for Marianne if she's not in BAFTA, but I'm hoping for her to win there.

Likewise - Marianne, Mike Leigh, quintessential British film, no consensus sweep (maybe, let’s see how Globes and SAG play out)… all the pieces are in place for a historic first ever win for a black actress at BAFTA… I’m also pretty confident she’ll make it in at SAG (but at whose expense I’m unsure) - years of TV work and Julia Roberts STANNING LOUDLY should get her across the line for a nomination…
 

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