Economists don’t seem worried about the student loan payment resumption tanking the economy, but I don’t see how it doesn’t have at least some effect. There are, what, 25+ million people about to make substantial monthly payments they haven’t been making for three years? And most of these debt holders are middle- and upper-class people who are active spenders. You could argue some of these people will have budget flexibility to carry on pretty much as usual, but it’s quite a dice roll.
Also not buying that the new IDR plan will make a big difference. I know for me it’s barely lowered my payment. (Which is honestly pretty disappointing.)