PopJustice News Network (PJNN): U.S. Politics Channel

Polls are really really strange right now and have been completely off with Dem races for the last two years. It seems as if they have adjusted their methodology to weigh Trump supporters more heavily to offset polling errors from ‘16 and ‘20, but are now possibly overestimating him. There is zero evidence backing up any substantial shift among Black voters from Biden to Trump let alone this earth shattering historic realignment. If anything, Biden has lost support among Black voters and they simply will not turnout to vote — they aren’t going to suddenly swing to Trump. News organizations are pushing this narrative because it gets clicks.
 
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I don't know how much I buy that narrative, either. But there's a similar narrative about young people shifting to Trump, which I'm starting to believe based on the surprising amount of text messages I'm getting lately from Trump campaigners. The past two cycles I don't think I got a single message of outreach. (Also, major sigh that I just realized this is the third election in a row we have to talk about Trump.)
 
he/him
This made me laugh.

"His team", mama, that's Jamie Raskin ddd.

Polls are really really strange right now and have been completely off with Dem races for the last two years. It seems as if they have adjusted their methodology to weigh Trump supporters more heavily to offset polling errors from ‘16 and ‘20, but are now possibly overestimating him. There is zero evidence backing up any substantial shift among Black voters from Biden to Trump let alone this earth shattering historic realignment. If anything, Biden has lost support among Black voters and they simply will not turnout to vote — they aren’t going to suddenly swing to Trump. News organizations are pushing this narrative because it gets clicks.
I think the issue is that Biden's problems are unique to Biden and thus the midterms or special elections are not really a congruent comparison to try and gauge how accurate current polling is. And if we did, it was polling in years like 2022 that accurately predicted a red wave wasn't happening despite pundits saying the otherwise.

Democrat success in 2018, for example, was herald as the suburban revolt and all these affluent white suburban moms voting in a bunch of centrist Dems (most of whom are no longer in office) yet Trump increased his share of Republicans in 2020. Biden's 2020 victory was largely herald (rightfully) by a historic increase in youth turnout, despite attempts by some centrist Dem operatives to claim a Trump swing voter that never materialized deserved credit.

Cross-tabs are weird right now and entering a new territory, but I think a fatal flaw in commentary is pundits thinking confusing cross-tabs somehow discredits the top-lines, when such is just not the case.
 
"His team", mama, that's Jamie Raskin ddd.


I think the issue is that Biden's problems are unique to Biden and thus the midterms or special elections are not really a congruent comparison to try and gauge how accurate current polling is. And if we did, it was polling in years like 2022 that accurately predicted a red wave wasn't happening despite pundits saying the otherwise.

Democrat success in 2018, for example, was herald as the suburban revolt and all these affluent white suburban moms voting in a bunch of centrist Dems (most of whom are no longer in office) yet Trump increased his share of Republicans in 2020. Biden's 2020 victory was largely herald (rightfully) by a historic increase in youth turnout, despite attempts by some centrist Dem operatives to claim a Trump swing voter that never materialized deserved credit.

Cross-tabs are weird right now and entering a new territory, but I think a fatal flaw in commentary is pundits thinking confusing cross-tabs somehow discredits the top-lines, when such is just not the case.
I definitely agree with most of what you're saying, but there were quite a few polls predicting a red wave in places like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, among others in 2022. That being said, I don't want to flat out discredit polls either, because they are more-so snapshots in time and definitely not great predictors 6 months out.

I also get what you're saying about special elections and midterms =/= forecasts for presidential years, but the over-performance by Dems in every single special election for the past two years now gives me some pause on that methodology. I definitely think we are entering a new territory where Dems are now voting in higher proportions in off year / midterm elections and Rs stay home (which would make sense with the accelerated political realignment of the last decade), but these over-performances weren't the norm prior to that shift. I definitely think this is a coin toss of an election, which is absolutely horrifying to witness, but abortion is still a salient issue and the one that may very well save Biden by the skin of his teeth in the end.
 
Cross-tabs are weird right now and entering a new territory, but I think a fatal flaw in commentary is pundits thinking confusing cross-tabs somehow discredits the top-lines, when such is just not the case.
THIS PART.

Crosstabs have insanely small sample sizes that just make them unrepresentative of a particular group, but these things get weighted by the pollster when achieving the topline number.

The toplines are bad - whether you're Pro- or Anti-Biden, that fact doesn't change no matter how much anxious democrats want it to change. Could things change in the next few months, especially if Trump is convicted? Absolutely, but right now this is Trump's race to lose.
 

Rmx

He/Him/His
The idea of Trump winning again is terrifying.

It's not just the US that's impacted by that. We'll see a surge of right-wing populism in Europe, for sure. I mean we're already seeing that, my own country has unfortunately just formed the most right-wing coalition in our history. But if Trump wins it'll get even worse. Let alone the damage he can do with his international policies. Tapping out of climate agreements whenever he feels like it. Potentially abandoning NATO countries who don't spend 2% of their GDP on their armed forces. I mean, he had a point, but you can't just put it like that. It's too much! I don't even wanna think about it.
 
he/him/basic cishomo


It’s almost like fully funding government agencies actually works!

I fucking love to see it. REAGAN WAS WRONG: TAX CORPORATIONS BIGLY. The complete and total denial of the fact that the biggest improvements in quality of life happened in an era where the highest marginal tax rates were at levels people would call Communist in 2024. Baaaah.

Other bitches of mine from my corner: Idaho's Brad Little signed the "sue your libraries if you find a naughty book" bill, and now he's signing the "sue your school if hear them calling a child a pronoun you think is bad" bill. Apparently we're gonna solve all problems in our society with civil lawsuits. Small government!
 

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