PopJustice News Network (PJNN): U.S. Politics Channel

[Artemisia]

Cindy McCain endorsed Joe Biden. Thanks for letting your late husband ruin the country and stand for absolutely nothing before he died, mama!

I was reading the NYT piece about her endorsement and thought this was hilarious:

Ms. McCain, asked whether she would support Ms. McSally, who has consistently trailed in the polls behind Mark Kelly, the Democratic challenger, flatly said no. “I have no interest in it,” she said.

Poor Martha kfngjfndkdm

 

[ChrisC]

Trying to spend today reading more into why the 2016 polls were off in order to assuage my anxiety about the current ones. Not sure if it's working, but at least some of what I'm reading makes it all less of a black box.

Are there any fundamental polling changes for this round that should make us more confident?

 

[TheDangerZone]

Are there any fundamental polling changes for this round that should make us more confident?

Most polling companies started weight education in their demographics which many weren't doing in 2016. One example: a PA-poll with Hillary leading would've shifted towards a narrow Trump lead if the polling company had weighted by education.

As we know now, non-college educated white voters broke massively for Trump.

https://www.sfgate.com/politics/art...lead-averages-2016-Clinton-wrong-15584094.php

 

[Artemisia]

Trying to spend today reading more into why the 2016 polls were off in order to assuage my anxiety about the current ones. Not sure if it's working, but at least some of what I'm reading makes it all less of a black box.

Are there any fundamental polling changes for this round that should make us more confident?

I don’t think the polling itself in 2016 was so bad, it was more the projections media made from them (Hillary has a 99% chance of winning, etc) that formed a false narrative that she had it in the bag. Individual state polling in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, etc. was fairly close before the election and narrowed even further after the Comey letter.

But one thing I know that changed since 2016 is that pollsters are now weighing by education. College graduation is correlated with voting for democrats and even answering polls to begin with. If you don’t consider that, your final poll result will likely understate Trump support.

 

[bakerboy92]

I can only speak for myself, but what makes me anxious about the election is how quickly American politics can change. Consider that mere months ago we were talking about a Bernie Sanders nominee, or that only a few days ago the race was oriented around COVID and not the Supreme Court.

And let's not even start with the Comey thing in 2016.

 

[TheDangerZone]

The difference is that a higher vote share of voters were apathetic about voting for both candidates and the Comey letter shifted enough late voters in Trump's favor. Without the Comey Letter, Clinton probably ekes out a VERY narrow victory when undecided, last minute voters break in her favor.

There's no more uncertainty about a potential Trump presidency: voters know what they're getting if they re-elect him. People are voting with 200,000 unnecessarily lost lives hanging over their ballot. Regardless of RBG's death, no polling has suggested that voters won't be going to the booths with COVID-19 squarely and firmly on their minds as the most pressing decision influencing their vote.

Now none of this is to say that I'm as brazenly naive as 2016. Trump can absolutely still pull out a victory but the window for him to start turning the polling around and change the fundamentals of the race is narrowing.

I'm more worried about how a potential October Surprise re: a COVID-19 vaccine will affect the race but luckily this has been a topic of conversation ever since Trump decided to be open about politicizing the vaccine.

Tl;dr: I literally couldn't fathom Trump winning in 2016, despite knowing abstractly that it could happen. I'm much less bullish but still cautiously optimistic this time around since the fundamentals are different.

 

[WowWowWowWow]

Have any of you ever met anyone or know of anyone who didn’t support Trump in 2016 but now says “You know what? I messed that one up. MAGA!!!”

 

[nooniebao]

 

[ChrisC]

Most polling companies started weight education in their demographics which many weren't doing in 2016. One example: a PA-poll with Hillary leading would've shifted towards a narrow Trump lead if the polling company had weighted by education.

As we know now, non-college educated white voters broke massively for Trump.

https://www.sfgate.com/politics/art...lead-averages-2016-Clinton-wrong-15584094.php

I don’t think the polling itself in 2016 was so bad, it was more the projections media made from them (Hillary has a 99% chance of winning, etc) that formed a false narrative that she had it in the bag. Individual state polling in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, etc. was fairly close before the election and narrowed even further after the Comey letter.

But one thing I know that changed since 2016 is that pollsters are now weighing by education. College graduation is correlated with voting for democrats and even answering polls to begin with. If you don’t consider that, your final poll result will likely understate Trump support.

Thanks for these! It really helps me mentally to understand that at least some concrete lessons were taken from last time.

 

[Artemisia]

So this must be why they preemptively announced a curfew in Louisville. What a fucking travesty this is.

 

[Sanctuary]

Probably due to the GOP continuing door knocking in key states while Dems stopped any physical campaigning months ago.

 

[theelusivechanteuse]

Probably due to the GOP continuing door knocking in key states while Dems stopped any physical campaigning months ago.

Kamala’s impact!!!

 

[Ashling92]

Have any of you ever met anyone or know of anyone who didn’t support Trump in 2016 but now says “You know what? I messed that one up. MAGA!!!”

So apparently my uncle voted for him in 2016 (an Irish immigrant - how ironic), but isn't this time. He's in MA so his vote isn't going to swing things either way. (Edit: I read your comment wrong ddd my bad)

I dunno, judging by the polls right now it's hard to imagine Trump winning, but I also just don't trust him. He could fight the results if they're close and get his new supreme court to hand him the election. Or he could do something shady the week before the election, like what happened in 2016. I also think he could win the states that are close right now (Florida, Pennsylvania).

Literally everything has gone wrong in 2020, I just can't get my hopes up, I don't trust this year.

 

[digitalkaiser]

I also don't trust that trump wont win, but the only thing keeping me going is rallying my friends and family that care about this and just hoping for the best. I honestly don't know what else to do. Is there anything meaningful I can do to help trump NOT win? I will canvas, I will donate, I will do anything to be QUITE honest.

My legs are open!

Its truly which devil can I sell my soul to at this point, I'm just depressed.

 

[Macsun]

It's not really down to us to do anything but stay the course? What needs to happen is for the former Trump voters to "awaken" to what's going on and not vote for him. I feel sorta helpless at this point and mentally preparing myself for the outcome.

 

[WowWowWowWow]

So apparently my uncle voted for him in 2016 (an Irish immigrant - how ironic), but isn't this time. He's in MA so his vote isn't going to swing things either way. (Edit: I read your comment wrong ddd my bad)

I dunno, judging by the polls right now it's hard to imagine Trump winning, but I also just don't trust him. He could fight the results if they're close and get his new supreme court to hand him the election. Or he could do something shady the week before the election, like what happened in 2016. I also think he could win the states that are close right now (Florida, Pennsylvania).

Literally everything has gone wrong in 2020, I just can't get my hopes up, I don't trust this year.

The New York Times especially seems to love to publish profiles of the “regretful Trump voter” and we know there are many people who feel like he didn’t keep his promises. It just doesn’t seem to me like there is a similarly sized group of people whose perspectives switched the opposite way. Plus if his margin was only ~90,000 voters over three states, he’s already overseen the death more than double that amount with his virus response...

 

[TheDangerZone]

Not to be shady, but there's plenty of things you CAN do to help in the upcoming election. Please don't fall into helplessness. Even just getting people registered within your own circles/communities is already making an impact.

If you want to take it a step further, phone bank or text bank for one of the Senate campaigns.

Finally, if you really want to make a difference, consider becoming a poll worker on Election Day. These are predominantly older citizens who may be hesitant because of the pandemic so this is a great time for younger Americans to step up to the plate. And you get paid for your time and training!

 

[Sanctuary]

Something tells me that this.... new ad campaign wasn't well thought-out.

 

[Monkey Meat]

So, that’s how it will go. Trump possibly wins ON November 3rd, but the ballots are not fully counted. He will then lose, but refuse to leave as the election was ‘rigged.’ AG Barr goes to work. The Senate pass a resolution and the 6-3 majority in the Supreme Court settles it.

 

[MollieSwift21]

If anyone sees links for text banking for the senate candidates could you post or PM me the links.

I did it for the 2018 elections and remember it being so much easier to find the places to sign up for it. Particularly Beto’s campaign made it easy.

Thanks!