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Washington Post reports that more than 69 million people have already voted; Newsweek puts it at over 72 million. Given that 158 million people voted in the 2020 presidential, being almost halfway there with multiple days still until Election Day seems promising from a participation standpoint.
That gives me a lot of hope (I've been pretty pessimistic for the last few weeks...) Because a very similar thing happened in the New Zealand elections in 2020. The amount of women who went out and voted early was huge.

My Aunt voted for the first time in her life to vote for Jacinda/Labour. My Mum voted for her as well, the first time she has voted for a left leaning party.

This is also the best nationwide result in the popular vote for a main party since 1951, the most seats any party has won since 1990 and the first time Labour has won an absolute majority of the vote since 1946.

I don't think Kamala will do that well because, well sexism/racism. But I'm hopeful.
 

Mr.Arroz

Staff member
he/him/his
What has the response been to this in the US? All a bit cringe to me but clever that she used this to make light of her laughing, which the Trump camp are obsessed with.
It came off really well, if TikTok is any thing to go by. I think the two of them were both enamored to meet one another regardless of all else, and their play-by-play did very well @ this stage in the election.
 
That’s good then! Being in the UK it’s hard to see any of our politicians doing something like this and not be ridiculed.

It came off really well, if TikTok is any thing to go by. I think the two of them were both enamored to meet one another regardless of all else, and their play-by-play did very well @ this stage in the election.
 
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I was thinking the same, but Texas has a similar ban so maybe we'll see the same thing there?
Yeah, plus +3 in Iowa is what, a +16 shift? If the states where the ban is still theoretical only pull, say, half that shift, a +8 still might be enough to shift some battleground states.
 
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he/him
Can anyone explain why the Iowa poll is so important? Does it say something about the general electorate? Iowa is having an abortion ban but much of the country isn’t. How would the Iowa poll predict the general election?
It's believed that Iowa would at the minimum mimic culturally the kind of voter culture amongst whites in the plains (as seen with shifts to Dems or away from Republicans like in the NE+2 district/some Kansas district or in the Nebraska Senate race where an independent is taking on a Republican after Dems decided not to run anyone).

And the idea is that the plains are culturally similar enough to the rust belt that there is some cultural overlap.

For example, polls this far are either not showing or are not capturing the same kind of shift amongst white educated voters in the sun belt states, whether in NV/AZ or NC/GA.

So the national implications are limited, but it suggests Republicans losing independent white women in the rust belt due to the impact of the Dobbs decision, with Harris only needing MI/PA/WI in order to win.
 
My mom and I dropped off our ballots today so we've officially voted for Harris/Walz and I do feel a sense of relief that we've at least got that taken care of. It's a small comfort, but it's at least something. There were quite a few people there also dropping their ballots off and there's been a massive turnout since we were able to start turning our votes in, I think more than ever before. I'm petrified seeing how close the polls are...I just can't fathom what kind of brain dead monster is still voting for a literal convicted felon, with convicted felon being probably the least horrible thing about him.

The way the 2020 election got pushed into a week of constant anxiety and fear was something I (and everyone else) had never seen or could've predicted but this year feels even scarier because we know now how insane it can get - we’re not going into this one blind. This pretty much sums it up:



I think we’re likely in for another multiple day count. To my fellow American PJers, if you’re able to stock up on things you need and stay safely at home while everything goes down, please do. I remember on election night in 2020 I was about to head to the store to grab a few things but I had this intense gut feeling to just stay home and I thought I was being silly but it was actually good that I listened to that feeling. I heard gunshots later that night and the…educationally challenged folks were going insane. The day before the counting was done and the election was called, I was at the store in the parking lot (in broad daylight) and a guy with a massive trump decal on his truck threatened to r*pe me and slit my throat because I ignored his cat call and then when he wouldn’t stop, I said I wouldn’t touch a trump supporter with a ten foot pole. It was so bad that other people were going off on him and another man walked me into the store. I was so rattled. Batshit people like that felt emboldened and untouchable because trump was throwing a tantrum and kept declaring his win and screaming voter fraud. So if you can stay safely at home, please do. It’s a really scary world and the people are even worse.
 

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