U.S. Politics

[Veritaserum]

Since the Politics thread is still a mess, and given requests from @AugustMoon and others, I though I'd create a new thread.

Please take any broader debates that aren't directly related to the upcoming election to another thread or your PM box.

 

[Veritaserum]

Hillary is continuing her accusations that Bernie is a single issue candidate. I think this may be really effective, particularly amongst minorities.

"Not everything is about an economic theory, right?" Clinton said, kicking off a long, interactive riff with the crowd at a union hall this afternoon. "If we broke up the big banks tomorrow - and I will if they deserve it, if they pose a systemic risk, I will - would that end racism?"

"No!" the audience yelled back.

Clinton continued to list scenarios, asking: "Would that end sexism? Would that end discrimination against the LGBT community? Would that make people feel more welcoming to immigrants overnight?"


After every question, the crowd emphatically yelled "No!"

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...single-issue-candidate-attack-sanders-n518261

 

[AugustMoon]

Good. I think a combination of the American presidential elections obviously being important, there being more American PJ members now, and the political reality being so different on the opposite sides of the Atlantic, all means that a separate thread for those elections could be helpful.


I tend to have a favourite candidate, or at least be resigned to the sitting president remaining. So more than eight years ago now I wrote in a PM to an American PJ member:

"...the presidential candidates that you have now - aren't they quite a motley bunch? I guess I have to go for the Hawaiian option (Obama), but that seems a bit dangerous. ..."

I don't know what I thought would happen. James Earl Ray coming up from his grave and assassinating another good black leader? But things have seems to have been OK, and at least not worse than with some other person in the White House.

I had some hope for John Kerry 2004, and I hope he's done a good job as Secretary of State under Obama.

In 2000 I didn't like Al Gore, but preferred him to Bush.

The time I was most passionate was actually 1976, when I didn't want Ford to win. First I wanted Reagan to get the Republican nomination, then I wanted Carter to win.

But this time around all candidates seems so unappealing. The Republican candidates are the usual reactionary mavericks, and Clinton and Sanders are quite boring and could be weak as leaders.

I'm still most curious about Sanders though, much because he seems so much like a Scandinavian social-democrat. That's a curious combination, and something I know a little bit about anyway.

 

[PopZeitgeist]

I think positioning Economic Reform as less of a priority than other issues is a silly argument. All of those issues are important and should be addressed as such. It's making me less and less confident that she will do anything about the economic system in place when she talks about "if it needs to be done". When

Sanders has also talked about reforming our prison system and highlighting the racial issues tied up with that, but then Chelsea Clinton comes out and says that is a worrying proposition.

What I get a lot of from Clinton's camp in relation to Sanders is either "Me too" or "It's impractical". She seems to have a vested interest in keeping the status quo as is and will do little to implement the real systematic changes that need to happen across many parts of the government.

 

[Veritaserum]

The "dead heat!"/"too close to call!" accusations seem really strange when you look at the actual delegate figures so far. Hillary is 16.5% of the way there, compared to Bernie's 1.8%.

 

[Danger Zone]

That's not an accurate representation though because the superdelegates are free to switch their allegiance whenever they want between now and the convention. If Bernie starts sweeping, then they'll switch their support.

Of the pledged delegates, they're about even right now. I'm sure Clinton is going to take South Carolina but I think the rest of the states are still up for grabs.

This race is going to the convention, I'm calling it now.

 

[HaveASit]

Glad to see this thread. I've been pulling for Hillary since before she announced her candidacy so I'm really hoping Sanders' momentum slows. I agree that this will probably go to the convention. My hope and assumption is that Hillary will sweep on Super Tuesday after a moderate start. I'm excited to see where this goes!

I hope Donald gets the republican nomination, solely because I don't think he would win a general election. Ted Cruz manages to be an even more terrifying prospect for president than Donald Trump.

 

[Someboy]

This race is going to the convention, I'm calling it now.

Oh, there's no way. It's good Bernie is making it a fight so the Dems get some publicity, but he's not going to be the nominee.

 

[Danger Zone]

Oh, there's no way. It's good Bernie is making it a fight so the Dems get some publicity, but he's not going to be the nominee.

That was a slight overstatement. While Hillary's no doubt getting the nomination, this is not going to be an early race. Like I don't see Bernie bowing out early. He's sticking around until close to the end of the nomination process. His campaign just has too much momentum at this point. He'll no doubt lose to her South Carolina, but I think there's still potential surprises in store for Colorado, Ohio and Nevada.

 

[beyoncésweave]

People say it'll go to convention every time and it doesn't. Towards the end of the primaries, there will be incredible pressure on whoever is behind on the delegate count to drop out and endorse the other person, particularly if the Republican nomination is relatively settled by then (/not going to their convention). That was certainly the case in 2008.

The best Sanders can hope is to not be completely blown out in the Southern states and to run even/win a few of the other states, and hope that that moves the national conversation and flips some of the later states. Even then, Clinton has superdelgates waiting in the wings to plump for her en masse if/when things get too close.

The Obama/Clinton battle went on for so long partly because the superdelegates were splitting pretty evenly for them for quite a while. The party establishment is not at all behind Sanders in this race, since he wasn't even a member of the party until recently (I think only like two congresspeople have endorsed him?).

 

[Laura Vanderbooben]

It kind of feels like whoever gets the Democratic nomination wins the election. Is that dumb to say? The Republican side is so splintered, and their views so far from the middle, that I can't see any of the candidates winning over swing voters.

 

[Danger Zone]

Yeah I think turnout is going to potentially be low this cycle. Hillary just doesn't seem like the type of voter to drive people to the booths like Obama did.

Which is worrisome, because historically Republicans win when there's low voter turnout.

 

[Someboy]

On that note, from The Onion:

NEW YORK—Citing her lackluster support among young voters, campaign consultants to Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential frontrunner who has served as both a U.S. senator and secretary of state, reportedly instructed the candidate this week to be more inspiring. “Right now, voters are looking for a candidate who stands for real societal change, someone who can stir something inside them,” said media advisor Jim Margolis, urging the woman—who overcame entrenched societal biases to build a successful legal career, became the first female senator elected in the state of New York, oversaw the Department of State during a period of widespread international tumult, and, if elected, would be the first female president in American history—to appear more uplifting to voters. “Many young people have completely lost faith in the political process, and they want to believe that true progress is actually possible. They want someone who embodies progressive ideals.” Margolis added that Clinton was too much a part of the establishment she spent decades breaking down barriers to enter.

 

[Syzygyz]

Bernie will be out after March 15th when Hillary, in the wake of a pretty massive Super Tuesday sweep, handily beats him in Illinois, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. She should have enough delegates to officially make him drop out on April 26th after she wins Pennsylvania and New York.

And thank christ for that. I agree with some of Bernie's ideas in principle (single payer, mostly), but some of the others are fucking ludicrous; Free college for everyone will not address the issue of there being an oversaturation of college grads with fucking idiotic degrees; 'breaking up' the big banks won't do much without serious regulatory overhaul (investment banks are like a hydra--cut off one head and two more shall take its place); imposing a .5% tax on EVERY tax transaction will absolutely decimate the American 401(k) retirement scheme currently in place.. the list goes on.

My order of candidates as it stands is: Hillary>>>>>Bloomberg>>>Bernie>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>the nutters on the right

 

[Veritaserum]

Donald Trump's feud with the Pope is everything. I spent the last five minutes cackling at the BBC News at 6.

"If and when the Vatican is attacked by ISIS, which as everyone knows is ISIS’s ultimate trophy, I can promise you that the Pope would have only wished and prayed that Donald Trump would have been President"

 

[HaveASit]

My fear is that Bernie supporters won't support Hillary come November. There is true animosity toward her, even within the party. I see just as much, if not more, hate for her coming from fellow democrats as I do from republicans. I hope she is able to drive enough voters to the polls to win in November.

 

[beyoncésweave]

My fear is that Bernie supporters won't support Hillary come November. There is true animosity toward her, even within the party. I see just as much, if not more, hate for her coming from fellow democrats as I do from republicans. I hope she is able to drive enough voters to the polls to win in November.

There were Clinton supporters swearing they'd never vote for Obama (and vice versa with Obama supporters); that shit was absolutely rancorous. But come November they all turned out, and against such a relatively benign candidate like McCain. I think the spectre of a President Trump or Cruz would dissolve any misgivings most Sanders voters would have about not voting for Clinton.

 

[shake-em-on-down]

If only Joe Biden was standing for Prez, he'd win hands down. As it stands, is it's Hilary or Bernie standing in Nov, they will basically hand the presidency to Donald Trump.

 

[Veritaserum]

If only Joe Biden was standing for Prez, he'd win hands down. As it stands, is it's Hilary or Bernie standing in Nov, they will basically hand the presidency to Donald Trump.

Not sure what you've been reading but the make-up of the US electorate (lots of black people, lots of Hispanic people, lots of immigrants, many gay people etc) ensures that Donald Trump is extremely unlikely to win.

 

[Raisin Hell]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Hmm.