Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Veritaserum, Feb 16, 2016.
Biden losing the white vote but crushing the black vote is the gag of the season.
Everything is upside down anymore. After Trump anything is possible now. The fact that the GOPee is all pro-Putin and Russia alone is a mindfuck.
The "paper chatbox" style charts that Politico is posting are fascinating looks into each candidate's support by a variety of categories (age, race, gender, education, religion, income, community, issues, interest in politics, political ideology etc.). For example, according to the polling they're looking at on education...
Warren's support significantly over-indexes (in comparison to all Democratic voters) on voters with bachelor's (+21% more likely than all Democratic voters) and post-grad degrees (+54%) and significantly under-indexes on voters without a college degree (-24%)
Biden slightly under-indexes on voters with bachelors (-6%) and moderately under-indexes on post-grad degrees (-12%) and slightly over-indexes on on people without a college degree (+6%)
Bernie moderately under-indexes on voters with bachelors (-12%) and significantly under-indexes on those with post-grad degrees (-36%) and significantly over-indexes on people without a college degree (+16%)
Kamala moderately over-indexes on voters with bachelors (+13%) and post-grad degrees (+16%) and moderately under-indexes on voters without a degree (-10%)
Of course, education is one of the biggest factors in determining income and for most of them, they see similar support when split by income (in other words, Bernie over-indexes on people without college degrees and also over-indexes on those with incomes less than $50k)
Also of interest, Warren significantly over-indexes on support from the most liberal Dems (much more than any other candidate), but also has the most significant under-indexing of moderate and conservative Dems. Sanders, by contrast, has only a slight over-indexing of liberal dems, but he doesn't take anywhere nearly as big a hit as Warren from moderate and conservative Dems. I don't know if that means that Dem voters see Warren as the most liberal or not. That's probably, to quote Ms. Ciccone, reductive.
Anyway, you can play around with the charts here.
The demon eyes.
Rise Warren, RISE.
Some of these are pretty strange... Sanders and Warren underindex for voters who have Healthcare as their top issue, and Warren underindexes for people who have Economy as their top issue? Seems contrary to why you'd vote for either, but OK.
I thought that was odd as well.
This is what they call TALENT.
SO. MUCH. WINNING!
That's pretty gross.
Nuke the flyover states and don't look back
And pray-tell hunties, why isn’t Queen of the Moon Kingdom Marianne in any of these polls, hmmm?
Bernie's our only shot and he's losing steam nn. We're fucked.
Are national polls anything more than directional given the electoral college? I don't know exactly where the last winner of the popular vote is right now, but I know it's not 1700 Pennsylvania Ave.
Seems like I'm gonna have to vote for Biden next fall? I know anything can happen between now and the Iowa caucus but his support among the key groups who turn out to vote in the Democratic primary hardly wavering is just insane.
National head-to-head polls over a year before anyone will officially secure the Dem nomination are stupid and offer no real insight.
Shes at 1% in the NBC poll linked above
Place in the next debate secured
Dope! I really like her.
Individual polls in states are showing Harris & Warren similarly performing weaker than Biden & Sanders in one-on-one polls against Trump though.
Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac, 5/14:
+11 Biden, +7 Sanders, +3 Warren, +0 Harris
Michigan, Detroit News, 5/30:
+12 Sanders, +12 Biden, +4 Warren, +3 Harris
North Carolina, Emerson, 6/3:
+12 Biden, +8 Sanders, +0 Warren, -2 Harris
Florida, Quinnipiac, 6/17:
+9 Biden, +6 Sanders, +4 Warren, +1 Harris
It's not shocking though that Biden & Sanders perform the best in general election polling. Both represent clear, solid stances. Biden is a call to return to the past and Sanders is a cry for a revolution to propel us forward. Everyone else has been trying to fit where between the two they can angle themselves, but 2016 reminds us that trying to appeal to everyone often leaves no one impassioned.
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