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U.S. Politics

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Veritaserum, Feb 16, 2016.

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  1. The somewhat concerning thing (at this point at least) is that turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire amongst Republicans was higher than amongst Democrats. It was the other way around in 2008. Seven years of President Obama has the Republican base and people who don't normally vote but would lean Republican electrified.
     
  2. From white Millennials (who don't go to the polls when it's time) and the far Left. She has the mainstream of the party.
     
  3. I'm backing Bernie for the democrat vote but I won't be mad if Hilary gets it. She's a very capable politician and still miles better than anything the Republicans have to offer.
     
  4. They're both capable. As unrealistic as Bernie's policies may be, I'm sure he'll have the right people behind him to make sure they're up to par when he takes office. Right now he represents something more powerful - a politician who's truly and completely trying to represent the people who elect.

    The fact that he's broken the fundraising record set by Obama shows his power to electrify his voter base. The people are fed up with career and establishment politics, and it's reflecting in the rise of Bernie and, for better or worse (mostly worst), in the rise of Trump as well. There are serious fundamental issues that the next president needs to address (legit solutions to climate change, institutionalized racism and it's manifestations in the education system and criminal justice system, gender equity, and perhaps most importantly the decline of the middle class), and I believe that Bernie will follow through on his policies to the best of his ability.

    With that said, Hillary is an incredibly capable politician and policy maker and perhaps the most "presidential" candidate. After making history with the first African American president, it would be cool to see that precedent continue with the first female president (in an ideal world this would've been Elizabeth Warren, but we don't always get what we want).

    I think either candidate will represent the party well come the general election, and there needs to be less divide amongst Hillary and Bernie supporters.
     
    Baby Clyde and silkelectric like this.
  5. My biggest question mark is whether Hillary will use her much-discussed political acumen to actually advance good policy.

    We know she is a foreign policy and surveillance hawk, having backed virtually every bad decision made as part of the 'War on Terror', and she's also pro-Netanyahu. But are her domestic policies and Senate voting record actually decent? I'm genuinely asking this, because I find it difficult to gauge her politics because of the cagey way she plays to the liberal base while shoring up establishment support.
     
  6. Someboy

    Someboy Staff Member

    Republicans have really outmatched Dems since Obama's initial election in terms of grass roots organization and focusing on smaller victories. They're able to use our gerrymandered-to-oblivion districts to gain a powerful advantage in a lot of local and House elections, slightly less so with the Senate, and obviously they've been unsuccessful at the Presidential level. It's been an interesting contrast between the two parties, with the Dems more focused on national contests and the GOP going local.
     
  7. Is grassroots organizing really as consequential to Republican victories in Congrress and in state and local elections as gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics? The Obama 'big data' machine (identifying supporters and turning them into actual Election Day voters using technology and analytics i.e the ultimate in grassroots organizing) was much stronger than the GOP's in 2008 and 2012, and Hillary should count herself lucky to be effectively inheriting it this year. The problem for the Democrats has been that large swaths of its base are just not plugged in between presidential elections.
     
  8. What a nice guy.

     
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  9. I'm biting my nails for Hillary today. A loss in Nevada would be bad.
     
  10. Nevada Caucus Results - 67% reporting

    Hillary Clinton 4,059 - 52.2% - 9 delegates

    Bernie Sanders 3,707 - 47.7% - 9 delegates
     
  11. With 80% reporting and with 52.1% if the vote, she's giving her victory speech. She seems a little teary.

    [​IMG]

    She's coming.
     
    HaveASit and MollieSwift21 like this.
  12. Well, she's basically won the nomination now, I would be too!
     
  13. The influence of Britney Spears just never stops growing.
     
    strangekin, SBK, joe_alouder and 8 others like this.
  14. MollieSwift21

    MollieSwift21 Staff Member

    Does Bush drop out now? Carson has to know it's time too.

    One of the exit polls has 73 percent supporting a ban on Muslim immigrants. Devastating.
     
  15. With any sense, Carson and Bush will be gone. Though I think Bush is too stubborn to go and Carson knows that the longer he stays, the more books he can sell and the higher his future after-dinner speaking fees.

    Mind you, I predicted that Christie would stick around but he left swiftly, so who knows?

    I think that Trump is now about 90% certain to be the Republican nominee. What a terrifying prospect.
     
  16. MollieSwift21

    MollieSwift21 Staff Member

    I still have a feeling Trump wont. The only way to go is down. He's not going to get new supports from those who exit or just in general. It does get more worrying each day though.
     
    Someboy and Veritaserum like this.
  17. Trump loses the nomination if it's just him against Rubio or Cruz. Thankfully, I think the GOP is too stupid / messy and the candidates themselves too stubborn to coalesce behind either of them. We'll see, but Trump clearly has a ceiling of 30%-40% support within the party.
     
  18. Someboy

    Someboy Staff Member

    But they're not plugged in because the party has mostly chosen to focus on national elections and working from the top rather than approaching things on a local level. It's worked because Obama is an iconic, inspirational figure whom is the perfect representation of this approach, but they've failed at igniting interest in mid-term elections while Republicans work double time to reach out to their base.

    Bush, Kasich, and Carson should drop out, and throw all of their supporters to Rubio, who seems like the only one who can take down Trump. But I think they may stay in until March 1, or even March 15.

    I cannot comprehend Trump winning another state, let alone being positioned as a legitimate nominee for PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES. It's insane.
     
    Baby Clyde likes this.
  19. The next few states after Carolina are much more moderate. Kasich and Rubio should do well. Iowa is filled with evangelicals so it's not surprising Cruz won there.
     
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