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U.S. Politics

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Veritaserum, Feb 16, 2016.

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  1. To be fair, it's the same country that elected for George W. Bush to remain President after 9/11.

    Speaking of Trump is it true that he's hired Omarosa as apart of his team?
  2. Yes
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  3. President Cruz might scare me more than President Trump.
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  4. "Trump on CNN, Oct. 8, 1999: I’m a registered Republican. I’m a pretty conservative guy. I’m somewhat liberal on social issues, especially health care, et cetera, but I’d be leaving another party, and I’ve been close to that party.

    King: Why would you leave the Republican Party?

    Trump: I think that nobody is really hitting it right. The Democrats are too far left. I mean, Bill Bradley, this is seriously left; he’s trying to come a little more center, but he’s seriously left. The Republicans are too far right. And I don’t think anybody’s hitting the chord, not the chord that I want hear, and not the chord that other people want to hear, and I’ve seen it."

    This alone proves my point no matter how long ago it was. If it comes down to Trump vs Hillary, don't be surprised if a considerable amount of Democrats go for Trump. Hillary is a part of the problems that go on in this country and doesn't seem to have any viable solutions. Bernie on the other hand ACTUALLY has Republicans who'd be willing to vote for him out of disgust for Trump.
  5. Someboy

    Someboy Staff Member

    Trump, a few days ago: Let's dip bullets in pigs' blood and shoot Muslims.

    If that's the missing chord, I'll be happily be deaf.
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  6. At this point, I'm still confident in saying Trump won't be our next President.

    It's important to remember that not even 1/4th of voters currently support him (he has yet to even pass 35–40% of Republicans). That niche group of supporters has long been with him and he's currently not attracting new supporters (exit polling tells us this). His bigoted, nationalist message has hit a clear ceiling. It's kind of laughable to suggest that he'll somehow attract enough blacks, Latinos, young people, women, liberal activists, college educated professionals, and other blocks of the Democratic coalition in November to actually win.

    Trump will only win the nomination because the rest of the Republican party won't get its shit together (an increasingly likely scenario) and the only way he'll win in November is if Hillary can't inspire turnout in the above groups.
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  7. The reason Trump won't win the presidency is because of Latinos.

    The map will look something like this come November if Trump is the nominee:


    The Democrats will fearmonger their way into high turnout in Latino-heavy Nevada, Florida, and Arizona(!). The Democrats only need to carry one of: Pennsylvania, Ohio, or North Carolina; or a combination of Virginia/Wisconsin/Arizona + any other state.

    Hillary is extremely popular and has a frighteningly strong ground game in PA, is popular in Ohio (but Kasich as VP will mitigate that), and is reasonably popular in Wisconsin (but vote suppression by Scott Walker may present an issue). Arizona is also one to watch--Obama lost by 8 running against reasonably compassionate-conservatives, if Trump tries to sell his 'build a wall' nonsense, youth and Latino vote will skyrocket--it's a long shot for it to turn blue, but Republicans would have to spend some resources keeping it red.

    Also, take it from a politics nerd who's never lived anywhere other than New York--we're not turning red, no matter who the nominee, for a very long time. Even the rich are Democrats in the city.
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2016
  8. That's what I'm thinking too. Surely most Latinos, Muslim Americans and African Americans won't want to vote for someone who openly denounced the entirety of their ethnicities and likened them to rapists/criminals/terrorists? Also you just know with Trump or Cruz he's not going to announce extreme policies until after he could trick the US GP into voting for him? Just like Hitler (although this has been said many times) and people should be seeing the warning signs of the dangers of having either one of those 2 Republican candidates as president, apart from their die hard supporters of course.

    What is worrying though is the amount of Bernie Sanders supporters who dislike Clinton and say they will vote for Trump out of protest; this is something that makes me think that if those voters actually follow through with this statement the race in a Clinton v Trump scenario could be a lot tighter than some people think, although I still think that the minority vote will hinder Trump's chances of getting the Presidency as I'd like to think there is no way that most of the Latinos/African Americans/Muslims etc in the USA will want to vote for him after what he's said about them and the treatment of minorities at Trump rallies. What a lot of angry Sanders supporters don't realise is that their heat of the moment decisions if Sanders doesn't get the Democratic nomination could only be hurting their country in the long run as imo Trump would make a disastrous President. The US economy by the end of his term would probably be in a worse state than Bush left it. Also the tension between minorities and the whites in the US would reach a new ugly level with the rise of BLM and 'white privilege' statements made by many African Americans and the fact that Trump openly stated he wants to ban Muslims from entering the US. In my mind under a Trump presidency I would not rule out a few ugly race riots and attacks, which is a scary thought.
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2016
  9. But she's a womyn!
  10. Obama is proof of what idealism gets you. Bernie is 10x more idealistic and far reaching in what he suggests as reforms, and as soon as he gets into office, he will be faced by government shutdowns, political logjams and watered down solutions which don't satisfy the critics or the proponents. You need someone who will work within the system to give incremental change. The American political apparatus is not equipped for anything as bold or far reaching as Bernie suggests.

    Also, I'm still yet to hear the justification for whitewashing his beliefs with regards to guns.
  11. Trump won Nevada and got the Latino vote... .
  12. I can't believe Trump is gonna be the Republican candidate. I feel like I'm in an episode of Black Mirror.
  13. That sounds like a big deal until you realize that the Republican electorate in Nevada is only 8-9% Latino.

    The Democratic electorate in Nevada is 19% Latino.
  14. I kinda think Trump is a clown. But he said something good about Russia.. So I'm here for him.
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  15. Exactly. I certainly don't see Trump getting the majority of the minority vote across the entire electorate against Clinton or Sanders, and the former is already leading in that respect. And with the Nevada example the Republican Latino electorate is smaller than the Democrat percentage, which could be a similar trend in other states too. Trump is popular mostly among the angry conservative Republican electorate and a small percentage of the minority and independent vote eventually won't be enough to get him into the White House though I feel the closeness of the race on election night will be similar to 2012. Donald will prove a competitive candidate, perhaps nipping at Hilary or Bernie's heels but I'd like to think that based on current evidence he won't win overall but he will put up a tough fight with his popularity among his supporters. But if Bernie wins the Democrat nomination, his young supporters better get out there and vote as something which could put President Trump in the White House is low Democrat voter turnout.
  16. Solenciennes

    Solenciennes Staff Member

    I'm not familiar enough with how the American general public operates but if this was in the UK, Donald Trump would be the equivalent of that joke X Factor candidate that starts to get some dangerous traction but ultimately falls before the final hurdle. Not so sure if this will be the case in the USA.
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  17. SBK


    I think she's a stronger candidate than Bernie if going against Trump for POTUS.

    I'm not so sure she'll "wipe the floor" but she's the strongest Democrat candidate. The only problem she has against Trump is his $$$ and the marketing machine that he's funding, that'll worryingly got him within reach of The White House.
    He cannot compete with her political knowledge and resumé. Hopefully there are enough Americans who can see that and will vote.

    He's the political equivalent of Richard Branson merged with Nigel Farage. But you're right, this has become an X Factor contest. A big PR machine, stirring up the pot with extreme comments that realistically if he follows through on them will send America back into the dark ages socially.
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  18. I think this is likely to be the case in November, because when it comes down to it, most voters who aren't irrational Trump supporters should be seeing that Donald is the essence of unelectable. For everyone that loves and supports him there is also a vast majority of people in the US who see sense: that he is inexperienced as a politician and does not have the qualities necessary to be a good President. But you can never be so sure in the US, I mean this is the nation that George Bush managed to scaremonger into giving him a second term based on 9/11 and Iraq. But I think Donald is just as much unpopular as he is popular with the US public. He's certainly no Obama and I don't think him winning the Republican nomination will mean he has a cakewalk into the White House as he is just too polarizing. In the end I think the 2016 US Presidential Election will simply end up being a larger version of the 2015 UK General Election as Donald Trump is the American Farage. For all the support and popularity Farage seemed to have due to people wanting 'change' compared to the supposed 'hate' towards Labour and the Conservatives and many people thought it was a given that UKIP would at least be sharing some power in a coalition with either of the two, UKIP and Nigel failed to gain any power. Hopefully a similar scenario will follow in the US in regards to Trump's campaign.
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  19. Obama has accomplished a lot, though. We never would have gotten the Iran Deal with Hillary in power. I also think he has shifted the culture in the United States on the whole to the left, despite the apoplectic rage on the right over his every move. We are a different society than we were in 2008.
    Mr.Arroz and Synthline like this.
  20. My republican boyfriend keeps having quiet little meltdowns every time we watch a caucus. Nevada about gave him a stroke.
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